Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2017

DOI

10.1002/2017gl074111

Publication Title

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

44

Issue

13

Pages

7002-7010

Abstract

The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that, in early summer, wildland fire potential is reduced in the southwest during El Nino but is increased in the northwest, with opposite trends for La Nina. In late summer, El Nino is associated with increased wildland fire potential in the southwest. Relative to the mean, the largest impacts of ENSO are observed in the northwest and southeast. Climate impacts on fire potential due to ENSO are found to be most closely associated with variations in relative humidity. The connections established here between fire potential and climate oscillations could result in improved wildland fire risk assessment and resource allocation.

Original Publication Citation

Mason, S. A., Hamlington, P. E., Hamlington, B. D., Jolly, W. M., & Hoffman, C. M. (2017). Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(13), 7002-7010. doi:10.1002/2017gl074111

ORCID

0000-0002-2315-6425 (Hamlington)

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