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Abstract

Cancer is a major health issue in the United States. Reliable estimates of yearly cancer mortality counts are essential for resourcing and planning. The American Cancer Society has used several methods of forecasting to estimate the future cancer burden and researchers are continually working to develop new methods with improved performance. There have been studies comparing different models for predicting the US cancer mortality counts. This study explores and compares several different models for cancer mortality count predictions at the state level, principally for the state of Virginia. Results of the comparisons appear to show the final improved model to perform better than the others; however, at the state level even the improved model can produce undesirable results.

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