Document Type

Article

Publication Date

8-2016

DOI

10.1038/srep31245

Publication Title

Scientific Reports

Volume

6

Pages

31245 (7 pages)

Abstract

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This masking arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. A consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.

Comments

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material.

NOTE: Erratum is included.

Original Publication Citation

Fasullo, J. T., Nerem, R., & Hamlington, B. (2016). Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent? Scientific Reports, 6, 31245. doi:10.1038/srep31245

ORCID

0000-0002-2315-6425 (Hamlington)

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