Annales de l'Université Abdou Moumouni de Niamey
Série A – N° XXVII
Modeling is increasingly used to assess scenarios and make projections on the future course of new coronavirus disease. This allows for better planning of care as well as a relaxation or tightening of the restrictive measures decreed by the government and the health authorities. The data analyzed in this study covers the period from March 19 to June 05, 2020 and allowed predictions of new cases of COVID-19 based on a growth model with a growth rate that changes linearly over time. In addition, we calculated and predicted the doubling time of the number of positive cases in each region of Niger based on the last 15 days i.e. for the period from May 3 to June 3 using the so-called "grayscale" approach. Overall, the doubling time in Niger is very long and varies between 54 to 578 days depending on the region. Diffa and Maradi have the shortest doubling times with 54 and 58 days respectively while Niamey has the longest doubling time (578 days).
Original Publication Citation
Sidi Zakari, I. & Galadima, H. (2020). Predictive modeling and estimation of the doubling time of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Niger. Annales de l'Université Abdou Moumouni de Niamey, 1&2(Série A – N° XXVII), 89-103.
Sidi Zakari, Ibrahim and Galadima, Hadiza, "Predictive Modeling and Estimation of the Doubling Time of Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Niger" (2021). Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications. 111.