Document Type


Publication Date




Conference Name

1st International Conference of Science of Science & Innovation, June 7-9, 2022, Washington, District of Columbia


[First paragraph] Concerns about the replicability, robustness and reproducibility of findings in scientific literature have gained widespread attention over the last decade in the social sciences and beyond. This attention has been catalyzed by and has likewise motivated a number of large-scale replication projects which have reported successful replication rates between 36% and 78%. Given the challenges and resources required to run high-powered replication studies, researchers have sought other approaches to assess confidence in published claims. Initial evidence has supported the promise of prediction markets in this context. However, they require the coordinated, sustained effort of collections of human experts and typically rely on availability of a ground truth. They are limited by human participants' narrow view of the literature and cognitive biases, the compounded effects of which are poorly understood in market settings.


© 2022 International Conference of Science of Science & Innovation and the Authors.

Included with the kind written permission of the Program Director and the Author.

Original Publication Citation

Rajtmajer, S., Griffin, C., Wu, J., Fraleigh, R., Balaji, L., Squicciarini, A., Kwasnica, A., Pennock, D., McLaughlin, M., Fritton, T., Nakshatri, N., Menon, A., Modukuri, S. A., Nivargi, R., Wei, X., & Giles, L. (2022). A synthetic prediction market for estimating confidence in published work [Poster presentation]. Center for Science of Science & Innovation. 1st International Conference of Science of Science & Innovation.


0000-0003-0173-4463 (Wu)