Date of Award

Spring 2007

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Engineering Management

Committee Director

Resit Unal

Committee Member

Charles Keating

Committee Member

Ariel Pinto

Committee Member

Trina M. Chytka

Abstract

The level of uncertainty in advanced system design is assessed by comparing the results of expert judgment elicitation to probability and evidence theory. This research shows how one type of monotone measure, namely Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence can expand the framework of uncertainty to provide decision makers a more robust solution space. The issues imbedded in this research are focused on how the relevant predictive uncertainty produced by similar action is measured.

This methodology uses the established approach from traditional probability theory and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory to combine two classes of uncertainty, aleatory and epistemic. Probability theory provides the mathematical structure traditionally used in the representation of aleatory uncertainty. The uncertainty in analysis outcomes is represented by probability distributions and typically summarized as Complimentary Cumulative Distribution Functions (CCDFs). The main components of this research are probability of X in the probability theory compared to mx in evidence theory. Using this comparison, an epistemic model is developed to obtain the upper “CCPF - Complimentary Cumulative Plausibility Function” limits and the lower “CCBF - Complimentary Cumulative Belief Function” limits compared to the traditional probability function.

A conceptual design for the Thermal Protection System (TPS) of future Crew Exploration Vehicles (CEV) is used as an initial test case. A questionnaire is tailored to elicit judgment from experts in high-risk environments. Based on description and characteristics, the answers of the questionnaire produces information, that serves as qualitative semantics used for the evidence theory functions. The computational mechanism provides a heuristic approach for the compilation and presentation of the results. A follow-up evaluation serves as validation of the findings and provides useful information in terms of consistency and adoptability to other domains.

The results of this methodology provide a useful and practical approach in conceptual design to aid the decision maker in assessing the level of uncertainty of the experts. The methodology presented is well-suited for decision makers that encompass similar conceptual design instruments.

DOI

10.25777/wca8-z392

ISBN

9780549040866

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