Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2026

DOI

10.1111/1752-1688.70099

Publication Title

JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association

Volume

62

Issue

2

Pages

e70099

Abstract

Hydrological modeling of the Upper James Watershed (UJW), Virginia, is critical for predicting water availability, flood management, agriculture, ecosystem protection, and hydropower production under increasing climate change. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) is applied to evaluate climate change impacts on key hydrological components within the watershed. Future climate conditions were assessed for the near (NF: 2026-2050), mid (MF: 2051-2075), and far (FF: 2076-2100) periods using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5. Climate data were bias-corrected using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM) and used to drive the HEC-HMS model. Results project annual precipitation reductions of 8.19% (SSP 2-4.5) and 14.63% (SSP 5-8.5) for 2026-2100 relative to the 1998-2022 baseline, with corresponding annual streamflow changes of a 4.16% increase and a 0.62% decrease, respectively. Key hydrological components, including infiltration, evapotranspiration, interception, surface runoff, and baseflow, are projected to decline across all future periods, with reductions ranging from 10.17% (NF) to 17.00% (FF) under SSP 2-4.5 and from 11.74% (NF) to 30.20% (FF) under SSP 5-8.5. These results highlight the need for improved reservoir operations, sustainable land-use practices, and enhanced flood and drought forecasting to mitigate climate impacts and support informed decision-making.

Rights

© 2026 The Authors

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Data Availability

Article states: "All data used in this manuscript are publicly available. Refer to data citations for source data."

Original Publication Citation

Imiya Mudiyanselage, C., & Ismael, D. (2026). Climate change impacts on hydrology in the Upper James Watershed, Virginia. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 62(2), Article e70099. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70099

ORCID

0000-0003-1834-4891 (Chathuranika), 0009-0003-7410-3045 (Ismael)

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