Date of Award

Winter 2002

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

International Studies

Committee Director

Steve A. Yetiv

Committee Member

Francis Adams

Committee Member

Stephen Medvic

Abstract

This dissertation develops a framework for understanding the alignment patterns of states of the former Soviet Union (FSU) vis-à-vis Russia. The framework challenges traditional alignment theories, such as balance of power and balance of threat theories, and suggests that these theories provide less accurate predictions of alignment behavior in the FSU than the present framework because of a variety of situational and contextual factors. In particular, the present framework highlights the impact of two variables on alignment patterns, (1) the internal political threats to leaders, and (2) the economic dependence on Russia. These two variables produce a four-outcome model, presented as four testable hypotheses. When internal threats are high and economic dependence is high, FSU leaders are more likely to adopt a strong pro-Russian alignment. When internal threats are low and economic dependence is high, FSU leaders are more likely to adopt a moderate pro-Russian alignment. When internal threats are high and economic dependence is low, FSU leaders are more likely to adopt a moderate pro-Russian alignment. Finally, when internal threats and low and economic dependence is low, FSU leaders are more likely to adopt a pro-independence (sometimes anti-Russian) alignment. The present framework is then tested against the empirical behavior of Uzbekistan and Ukraine.

DOI

10.25777/3txp-6g33

ISBN

9780493976068

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