Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Eel Grass (Zostera marina) Dynamics in Chesapeake Bay Using a Bio-Optical Model
College
College of Sciences
Department
Ocean and Earth Sciences
Graduate Level
Master’s
Graduate Program/Concentration
Ocean and Earth Science
Presentation Type
Poster Presentation
Abstract
Coastal ecosystems, including seagrass habitats, are one of the most productive ecosystems yet anthropogenic and environmental stressors increasingly threaten them. Eelgrass (Zostera marina) in the Chesapeake Bay exemplifies a vital yet vulnerable coastal ecosystem, facing disturbances such as sediment loading, coastal eutrophication, mechanical disruptions, and climate change-driven shifts in temperature, salinity, and CO2 levels. This study employs GrassLight, a bio-optical model, to predict seagrass density and distribution under present-day environmental conditions and future climate scenarios projected by the IPCC 2023. The model simulated the effects of varying salinity (0–30 ppt), pH (6.6–8.1) as a proxy for CO2 levels, and temperature (5–40°C) on seagrass dynamics. By analyzing the interactions between these stressors and eelgrass growth and distribution, this study aims to provide critical insights into the potential impacts of climate change on Chesapeake Bay's seagrass meadows. The model was first calibrated under present-day conditions and validated using aerial imagery to assess its accuracy. Model results indicate that increasing temperature and salinity negatively impact eelgrass growth and distribution., whereas elevated CO2 levels enhance growth. At Goodwin Island, the Leaf Area Index (LAI) reaches its peak at approximately 4 m² leaf m⁻² under optimal conditions of 5°C temperature, 30 ppt salinity, and a pH of 6.6. However, when the pH increases to 8.1 while temperature and salinity remain constant, the LAI declines. The GrassLight-derived LAI serves as a crucial indicator of potential habitat availability for eelgrass, offering valuable insights into the resilience and adaptability of these ecosystems under climate change stressors. These findings are essential for informing conservation strategies and ensuring the sustainable management of Chesapeake Bay’s seagrass meadows, reinforcing their role as vital carbon sinks and biodiversity hotspots in a rapidly changing environment.
Keywords
Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV), Seagrass, Climate Change, Grasslight, Metabolism
Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Eel Grass (Zostera marina) Dynamics in Chesapeake Bay Using a Bio-Optical Model
Coastal ecosystems, including seagrass habitats, are one of the most productive ecosystems yet anthropogenic and environmental stressors increasingly threaten them. Eelgrass (Zostera marina) in the Chesapeake Bay exemplifies a vital yet vulnerable coastal ecosystem, facing disturbances such as sediment loading, coastal eutrophication, mechanical disruptions, and climate change-driven shifts in temperature, salinity, and CO2 levels. This study employs GrassLight, a bio-optical model, to predict seagrass density and distribution under present-day environmental conditions and future climate scenarios projected by the IPCC 2023. The model simulated the effects of varying salinity (0–30 ppt), pH (6.6–8.1) as a proxy for CO2 levels, and temperature (5–40°C) on seagrass dynamics. By analyzing the interactions between these stressors and eelgrass growth and distribution, this study aims to provide critical insights into the potential impacts of climate change on Chesapeake Bay's seagrass meadows. The model was first calibrated under present-day conditions and validated using aerial imagery to assess its accuracy. Model results indicate that increasing temperature and salinity negatively impact eelgrass growth and distribution., whereas elevated CO2 levels enhance growth. At Goodwin Island, the Leaf Area Index (LAI) reaches its peak at approximately 4 m² leaf m⁻² under optimal conditions of 5°C temperature, 30 ppt salinity, and a pH of 6.6. However, when the pH increases to 8.1 while temperature and salinity remain constant, the LAI declines. The GrassLight-derived LAI serves as a crucial indicator of potential habitat availability for eelgrass, offering valuable insights into the resilience and adaptability of these ecosystems under climate change stressors. These findings are essential for informing conservation strategies and ensuring the sustainable management of Chesapeake Bay’s seagrass meadows, reinforcing their role as vital carbon sinks and biodiversity hotspots in a rapidly changing environment.