A Predictive Game Theoretic Model to Assess US - Russian Response to an Islamic Safe-Haven in the Caucasus Region
Date of Award
Master of Science (MS)
Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering
Modeling and Simulation
John A. Sokolowski
Catherine M. Banks
Andrew J. Collins
The thesis examines possible US and Russian policy decisions following the establishment of an Islamist safe-haven in Chechnya. Conflicting national policies affect the possibility of a negotiated settlement. Domestic and international political considerations constrain the decision-making of the two nations. The author applies game theory to examine the sequential decision-making of the two nations. The extensive form model draws outcome payoff values from a bounded uniform distribution. This approach naturally models uncertainty; and, it allows repeated probabilistic instantiations of the model. These instantiations produce a range of solutions. The most likely outcome was a negotiated settlement, generally following a tit-for-tat strategy. The second most likely outcome was a conflict initiated by the US. What-if scenarios were used to explore the model. The scenarios illustrate the flexibility of the model. The modeling approach developed in the thesis can be adapted to study other international conflicts. The quantitative data, outcome payoff ranges, was contrived by the author following an analysis of the literature. While the model developed in the thesis is repeatable, similar outcomes assume the would-be modeler is in analytical concurrence with the author. Thus, the development of unbiased preference indices is identified as an area for future consideration.
Hartline, Christopher W..
"A Predictive Game Theoretic Model to Assess US - Russian Response to an Islamic Safe-Haven in the Caucasus Region"
(2010). Master of Science (MS), Thesis, Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/sk27-wz76