Date of Award

Spring 1986

Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)


Ocean & Earth Sciences


Physical Oceanography

Committee Director

Carvel H. Blair

Committee Member

John Morgan

Committee Member

Larry P. Atkinson

Call Number for Print

Special Collections LD4331.O35M78


The statistical model used to predict storm surge. which is defined as the difference between observed water level and predicted astronomical tide. at Sewell's Point. Virginia. for the last ten years relies on forecast surface air pressures interpolated over a large portion of the Atlantic Ocean. A variation on this method is developed which adds previous station surge and local wind and pressure terms with time leads up to 18 hours to the Pore prediction for surge. and develops surge prediction equations for three substations eight to 65 miles (13 to 105 km) from Sewell's Point. The Sewell's Point surge was observed to be followed very closely by the surges at the two nearer substations. Surge predictions at all four stations. however. were improved by the new regression equations. The ease in using the new equations combined with their improved accuracy makes the use of these new equations preferable to the Pore prediction method. particularly for users with limited data sources including shippers and property owners.


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