Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2017

DOI

10.1002/2017gl074111

Publication Title

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

44

Issue

13

Pages

7002-7010

Abstract

The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that, in early summer, wildland fire potential is reduced in the southwest during El Nino but is increased in the northwest, with opposite trends for La Nina. In late summer, El Nino is associated with increased wildland fire potential in the southwest. Relative to the mean, the largest impacts of ENSO are observed in the northwest and southeast. Climate impacts on fire potential due to ENSO are found to be most closely associated with variations in relative humidity. The connections established here between fire potential and climate oscillations could result in improved wildland fire risk assessment and resource allocation.

Rights

© 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

AGU allows authors to deposit their journal articles if the version is the final published citable version of record, the AGU copyright statement is clearly visible on the posting, and the posting is made 6 months after official publication by the AGU.

Data Availability

Article states: "NCEP Reanalysis data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/."

Original Publication Citation

Mason, S. A., Hamlington, P. E., Hamlington, B. D., Jolly, W. M., & Hoffman, C. M. (2017). Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(13), 7002-7010. doi:10.1002/2017gl074111

ORCID

0000-0002-2315-6425 (Hamlington)

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