0000-0002-8859-7096 (Burdige)

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Publication Title

Geophysical Research Letters






e2023GL104957 (1-11)


The impact of rising atmospheric CO2 (pCO2atm) from anthropogenic activities on pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, carbonate mineral saturation, and aluminum (Al) speciation is evaluated for 18 northeastern USA lakes using polythermal, sliding activity reaction path models. pCO2atm was forced using two scenarios from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report in which pCO2atm attains either 600 or 1,100 ppm in 2,100. Results suggest pH will decrease 0.15 and 0.32 pH units, aCO2-3 will decrease 24% and 49%, and Ωaragonite will decrease 21% and 45%, respectively. These changes are of the same magnitude as those expected for the oceans. The effects of rising pCO2atm on sub‐lethal 20% effect concentrations (i.e., EC20) of Al for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are evaluated with the biotic ligand model, which indicates Al toxicity effects will increase as pH decreases. These changes could reverse gains in water quality and fisheries health achieved since implementation of the Clean Air Act.


© 2023 The Authors.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and it is not used for commercial purposes.

Data Availability

Article states: "Data employed in this study were compiled from published papers, reports, and on-line sources maintained by several northeastern states. Specifically, the data are available through Boylen et al. (2014), Hintz et al. (2020), Hollocher and Yuskaitis (1993), Solomon et al (2013), Weiler (1978), the Maine Department of Environmental Protection (2023), the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (2022), the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, and the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (2019). A summary of the model results is available via Zenodo (Johannesson, 2023a). Example scripts for simulating acidification of Lake Champlain and Lake Superior with version 14.0.01 and higher of the Geochemist's Work-bench® software package are also available at Zenodo (Johannesson, 2023b)."

Original Publication Citation

Johannesson, K. H., Horne, J. D., Misra, A., Aliperta, C., Meletis, O. V., Santore, R. C., White, C. D., Mavrommati, G., & Burdige, D. J. (2023). Acidification of northeastern USA lakes from rising anthropogenic‐sourced atmospheric carbon dioxide and its effects on aluminum speciation. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(22), 1-11, Article e2023GL104957. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104957


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