Memory & Cognition
This article presents two experiments that used insight and mathematical problems to investigate whether different factors would affect hindsight bias on metacognitive and situational judgments. In both studies, participants initially rated their likelihood of solving each problem within a certain amount of time (metacognitive judgments) and rated the importance of each component of the problem for finding the solution (situational judgments). Next, participants attempted to solve each problem. In Experiment 1, all participants were given solution feedback information, but in Experiment 2, participants were not given any solution feedback. After 1 week, participants were asked to recall their original judgments. Hindsight bias was assessed by comparing the initial with the final ratings. Insight problems and math problems showed different patterns of hindsight bias effects on the metacognitive and situational judgments. The results suggest that two competing models of hindsight effects are actually complementary explanations for judgment reconstruction on different types of judgment tasks.
Original Publication Citation
Ash, I. K., & Wiley, J. (2008). Hindsight bias in insight and mathematical problem solving: Evidence of different reconstruction mechanisms for metacognitive versus situational judgments. Memory & Cognition, 36(4), 822-837. doi:10.3758/mc.36.4.822
Ash, Ivan K. and Wiley, Jennifer, "Hindsight Bias in Insight and Mathematical Problem Solving: Evidence of Different Reconstruction Mechanisms for Metacognitive Versus Situational Judgments" (2008). Psychology Faculty Publications. 60.