Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2005
DOI
10.1029/2005GL023253
Publication Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
32
Issue
12
Pages
1-4
Abstract
As part of a model-evaluation exercise to forecast Loop Current and Loop Current eddy frontal positions in the Gulf of Mexico, the Princeton Regional Ocean Forecast System (PROFS) is tested to forecast 14 4-week periods Aug/25/99- Sep/20/00, during which a powerful eddy, Eddy Juggernaut (Eddy-J) separated from the Loop Current and propagated southwestward. To initialize each forecast, PROFS assimilates satellite sea surface height (SSH) anomaly and temperature (SST) by projecting them into subsurface density using a surface/subsurface correlation that is a function of the satellite SSH anomaly. The closest distances of the forecast fronts from seven fixed stations in the northern Gulf over a 4-week forecast horizon are then compared against frontal observations derived primarily from drifters. Model forecasts beat persistence and the major source of error is found to be due to the initial hindcast fields.
Original Publication Citation
Oey, L.Y., Ezer, T., Forristall, G., Cooper, C., DiMarco, S., & Fan, S. (2005). An exercise in forecasting loop current and eddy frontal positions in the Gulf of Mexico. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(12), 1-4. doi: 10.1029/2005GL023253
Repository Citation
Oey, Lie-Yauw; Ezer, Tal; Forristall, George; Cooper, C.; DiMarco, Steven; and Fan, S., "An Exercise in Forecasting Loop Current and Eddy Frontal Positions in the Gulf of Mexico" (2005). CCPO Publications. 133.
https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/ccpo_pubs/133
ORCID
0000-0002-2018-6071 (Ezer), 0000-0002-4394-9094 (DiMarco)