Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2016

DOI

10.2166/nh.2015.063

Publication Title

Hydrology Research

Volume

47

Issue

1

Pages

185-200

Abstract

Previous studies either did not identify abrupt change or identified such change but did not exclude it from the detection of trend in streamflow. As a result, an overall downward trend might be erroneously detected as an upward trend because of abrupt increase, while an overall upward trend could be faked as a downward trend due to abrupt decrease. The objectives of this study were to: (1) present a methodology to analyze trend in streamflow in the presence of abrupt change; and (2) use this methodology to detect trend and extreme occurrence of streamflow in the Upper Balagaer River watershed, a mid-latitude nearly pristine precipitation-fed Eurasian steppe watershed in north China. The results indicate that streamflow abruptly decreased around 1994 and exhibited no significant trend from 1960 to 1993 but a significant decrease trend since 1994 (in particular after 1999). In addition, the occurrence of days with a low streamflow was greater after 1994, whereas the occurrence of days with a high streamflow was smaller. Further, the inclusion of the abrupt change in the analysis could compound the detection of the pre-1994 trends but had minimal influences on the detection of the post-1994 trends. These results can be representative across the Eurasian steppe region beyond the study watershed.

Comments

Web of Science: "Free full-text from publisher."

© IWA Publishing 2016

ORCID

0000-0003-3455-3124 (Wang)

Original Publication Citation

Wang, X. X. (2016). Temporal variations of streamflow in a mid-latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in the past half century. Hydrology Research, 47(1), 185-200. doi:10.2166/nh.2015.063

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