Document Type

Report

Publication Date

2001

Pages

1-80

Abstract

[Executive Summary] This study examined the feasibility of the next generation of forward sensing turbulence systems for the Part 121 market segment: Enhanced X band radar, LIDAR, and a product that combines these first two technologies. Highlights of the findings include:

  • On an annual basis, Part 121 carriers experience at least 567.8 turbulence related injury events that result in 687 minor flight attendant injuries, 38.4 serious flight attendant injuries, 119.5 minor passenger injuries, and 17.1 serious passenger injuries.
  • The expected cost of turbulence injuries to airlines is $164,286 for a serious flight attendant injury, $25,000 for a minor flight attendant injury, $170,000 for a serious passenger injury, and $33,333 for a minor passenger injury.
  • Based on these estimated injury levels and costs, turbulence injuries have at least a $30 M annual impact on Part 121 carriers.
  • The FAA values series injuries at $521,800 and minor injuries at $38,500. If these injury costs are used, the industry impact of turbulence is near $60M annually.
  • Approximately 67% of turbulence incidents are related to convective turbulence with clear air and wake /other causes roughly splitting the remainder.
  • The impact of turbulence incidents in excessive flight time, aircraft damage, and diversions / delays does not appear to be a significant cost factor for consideration in a technology adoption decision.
  • The business case for enhanced X band radar is positive if the nonrecurring investment cost is less than $21,966.
  • The business cases for LIDAR and the combined product do not appear favorable under most forseeable circumstancces. These products will have to find market success based on safety, competitive advantage, free - flight requirement or other market or system pressures.
  • The combined product appears to have the best market potential as a free flight requirement for large capacity aircraft involved in long duration flights.
  • Enhanced X band radar will lead the market penetration of these products and will achieve a maximum of 43% of the market in approximately 11 years. It appears the combined product may gain 31% of the market but will take about 14 years to achieve this level.
  • The most important market success criteria for these technologies can be summarized as integration of the turbulence sensing technology into a cockpit weather information system that provides value added decision data during the en route portion of the flight while minimizing the pilot training required for use. -In general, the warning threshold for severe turbulence should be greater than three minutes, for moderate turbulence two to three minutes, and less than two minutes for light turbulence.
  • Forward sensing systems should detect severe turbulence with accuracy between 90%-100% and moderate turbulence with accuracy between 85% and 90%. Light turbulence should be detected with accuracy between 85% and 90%. Light turbulence should be detected with accuracy between 80% and 90% although there is significant opinion that light turbulence accuracy can be below 80%.
  • From an airline viewpoint, reduction of injuries will be the primary reason to purchase turbulence sensing technology. Another important decision factor involves the possible use of this technology as a requirement for the free flight environment.

Rights

This is a work of the United States government, and is in the public domain in the United States of America. Public use is permitted. International copyright may apply.

ORCID

0000-0003-0144-9099 (Sousa-Poza)

Original Publication Citation

Kauffmann, P., & Sousa-Poza, A. (2001). Market assessment of forward-looking turbulence sensing systems (Report No. NASA/CR-2001-210905). National Aeronautics and Space Administration. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20010069993

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