Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2026

DOI

10.1007/s11356-026-37912-8

Publication Title

Environmental Science and Pollution Research

Volume

Advance online publication

Pages

24 pp.

Abstract

Wildfire risk is increasing in the eastern U.S., yet spatial and climate-driven assessments remain limited. This study evaluates climate change impacts on wildfire risk in the Upper James Watershed (UJW) using baseline (2000–2019), near-future (2021–2040), and far-future (2061–2080) projections from a 12-model CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) ensemble under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. A wildfire risk model was developed in ArcGIS Pro using nine key factors and validated with MODIS hotspot data, showing good agreement between modeled risk patterns and observed fire occurrences (NOF = 0.21, RMSE = 4.20, MAE = 3.37). Baseline risk was primarily driven by land cover, fire-lookout visibility, annual precipitation, population density, and aspect. Baseline maps classified the UJW as very low (21%), low (60%), medium (18.77%), and high risk (0.23%), with high-risk zones concentrated in the southwestern and northeastern regions. Climate projections indicate increased precipitation (up to 8.78%) and rising temperatures (maximum 24.58%; minimum 92.11%), leading to a 519.75% expansion of high-risk areas and > 65% growth in medium-risk zones under SSP5–8.5 by the far-future period, particularly in autumn and spring, while winter risk declines across all scenarios. Jefferson National Forest shows moderate risk increases, whereas Moores Creek, Douthat, and Lake Robertson parks experience substantial growth, with Lake Robertson’s risk doubling. This study fills a critical regional gap and supports climate-adaptive wildfire planning by enabling targeted risk prioritization, improved resource allocation, and enhanced long-term preparedness in vulnerable eastern U.S. landscapes.

Rights

© 2026 The Authors.

This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original authors and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.

Data Availability

 Article states: "The data will be made available upon reasonable request."

Original Publication Citation

Chathuranika, I. M., & Ismael, D. (2026). Assessing climate change impacts on wildfire risk in central Appalachian forests of the eastern United States. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-026-37912-8

ORCID

0000-0003-1834-4891 (Chathuranika), 0009-0003-7410-3045 (Ismael)

Additional Files
11356_2026_37912_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (75 kB)
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