University

James Madison University

Country

United States of America

Document Type

Conference Paper

Description/Abstract

In this paper, we use an adaptation of the Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey framework (via Affilit Et. Al.) to model the relationship between Taliban disinformation campaigns and NATO’s attempts to counter them. We find that aggression is a significantly preferred strategy over stagnation; this result should prompt decisionmakers to take strong stances against disinformation campaigns while maintaining a healthy defense against retribution. This leads us to propose the NATO Afghan Youth for Change program, which provides scholarships to individuals throughout the Afghan diaspora to become NATO influencers - a role which will both advance their personal goals and mitigate the spread of disinformation in what may otherwise be communities targeted by the Taliban’s disinformation campaigns.

Keywords

Disinformation, Population Dynamics Modeling, Counter-terrorism

Disciplines

Defense and Security Studies | International and Intercultural Communication | International Relations | Peace and Conflict Studies | Social Influence and Political Communication | Terrorism Studies

DOI

10.25776/vkh9-y960

Session Title

Democracy, Development, and Disinformation

Location

Chesapeake Room, ODU Webb Center

Start Date

3-21-2025 1:30 PM

End Date

3-21-2025 2:50 PM

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Mar 21st, 1:30 PM Mar 21st, 2:50 PM

Modeling the Impact of NATO Policy Actions on Taliban Disinformation Campaigns with Lotka-Volterra Models

Chesapeake Room, ODU Webb Center

In this paper, we use an adaptation of the Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey framework (via Affilit Et. Al.) to model the relationship between Taliban disinformation campaigns and NATO’s attempts to counter them. We find that aggression is a significantly preferred strategy over stagnation; this result should prompt decisionmakers to take strong stances against disinformation campaigns while maintaining a healthy defense against retribution. This leads us to propose the NATO Afghan Youth for Change program, which provides scholarships to individuals throughout the Afghan diaspora to become NATO influencers - a role which will both advance their personal goals and mitigate the spread of disinformation in what may otherwise be communities targeted by the Taliban’s disinformation campaigns.