Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2023

DOI

10.3934/mbe.2023466

Publication Title

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

Volume

20

Issue

6

Pages

10552-10569

Abstract

This study aims to use data provided by the Virginia Department of Public Health to illustrate the changes in trends of the total cases in COVID-19 since they were first recorded in the state. Each of the 93 counties in the state has its COVID-19 dashboard to help inform decision makers and the public of spatial and temporal counts of total cases. Our analysis shows the differences in the relative spread between the counties and compares the evolution in time using Bayesian conditional autoregressive framework. The models are built under the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Moran spatial correlations. In addition, Moran's time series modeling techniques were applied to understand the incidence rates. The findings discussed may serve as a template for other studies of similar nature.

Rights

© 2023 the Authors.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Original Publication Citation

Indika, S. H. S., Diawara, N., Jeng, H. A., Giles, B. D., & Gamage, D. S. K. (2023). Modeling the spread of COVID-19 in spatio-temporal context. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 20(6), 10552-10569. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023466

ORCID

0000-0002-8403-6793 (Diawara), 0000-0003-1512-6848 (Giles)

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