Document Type

Book Chapter

Publication Date

2025

DOI

10.4018/979-8-3373-1037-4.ch002

Publication Title

Understanding Voter Behavior With Predictive Modeling

Pages

35-60

Abstract

The ability to vote is one of the most valuable rights and privileges afforded by the Constitution of the United States to its citizens. For many, voting is not just a civic duty; it is also a choice. Voting is crucial to our democracy, and any changes to it may affect the efficiency of the democratic process. The bigger question is whether voters behave rationally by engaging in a cost-benefit calculus in deciding whether or not to vote. Using data science, this paper will examine the probability of voting and investigate its impact via cost and benefit among other variables using the 2020 American National Election Studies (ANES) dataset. In addition, the study will also assess the impact voter perceptions of “a sense of duty” have on voter turnout. Empirical work provides additional evidence that feelings of civic duty truly do motivate voter turnout. Using the latest methods of statistical analyses, we identify and understand the factors that benefited and hindered voting in the ANES 2020 data and the impact of voter benefits and costs on turnout.

Rights

© 2026 IGI Global Scientific Publishing. Copying or distributing in print or electronic form without written permission of IGI Global Scientific Publishing is prohibited.

IGI Global Scientific Publishing Authors, Under Fair Use CAN:

Post the final typeset PDF (which includes the title page, table of contents and other front materials, and the copyright statement) of their chapter or article (NOT THE ENTIRE BOOK OR JOURNAL ARTICLE), on the author or editor's secure personal website and/or their university repository site.

Original Publication Citation

Diawara, N., Henley, T., Brown, S., & Hossain, M. I. (2025). In search of the rational voter in the 2020 presidential election: Understanding the impact of voter costs and benefits on turnout. In G. Panagiotidou (Ed.), Understanding Voter Behavior With Predictive Modeling (pp. 35-60). IGI Global Scientific Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3373-1037-4.ch002

ORCID

0000-0002-8403-6793 (Diawara), 0009-0000-7297-4953 (Hossain)

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