Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2026
DOI
10.1111/nrm.70034
Publication Title
Natural Resource Modeling
Volume
39
Issue
2
Pages
e70034
Abstract
Natural capital accounting provides a framework for integrating ecological processes with economic valuation, but the mechanics of shadow price formation often remain opaque to resource managers and policymakers. Using the Clarks Fork elk herd in northwestern Wyoming as a case study, we decompose the shadow price of natural capital into its ecological, economic, and institutional components. Population dynamics are estimated using a linearized Ricker model and projected forward using a logistic projection, incorporating climate-driven reductions in intrinsic growth rates. These ecological scenarios are linked to a shadow pricing formulation that explicitly accounts for marginal benefits, harvest policy responses, discounting, and capital gains. Results show shadow prices are shaped by population size, nonlinear ecological feedbacks, and scarcity expectations. Climate-induced declines in intrinsic growth rates dampen both biological growth and capital gains, attenuating the steepness of shadow price declines relative to population losses. Isolating the effects of marginal benefits, discounting, and capital gains sheds light on how ecological change shapes scarcity-adjusted value, improving the interpretability of natural capital accounting.
Original Publication Citation
Bawa, R., Bennett, D., Siu, W. Y., Kirkland, B., Finnoff, D., & Hochard, J. (2026). Decomposing shadow prices under climate-driven growth scenarios: Insights from an elk herd case study. Natural Resource Modeling, 39(2), Article e70034. https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.70034
ORCID
0000-0003-2001-5317 (Siu)
Repository Citation
Bawa, R., Bennett, D., Siu, W. Y., Kirkland, B., Finnoff, D., & Hochard, J. (2026). Decomposing shadow prices under climate-driven growth scenarios: Insights from an elk herd case study. Natural Resource Modeling, 39(2), Article e70034. https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.70034
Supporting Information
Included in
Climate Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, Natural Resources Law Commons, Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons
Comments
© 2026 The Authors.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Data availability statement: Article states: "The replication code used in this study has been deposited in Zenodo at 10.5281/zenodo.17038323. The data set may be made available by the corresponding author upon reasonable request."