Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2015
DOI
10.1086/682415
Publication Title
Journal of Politics
Volume
77
Issue
4
Pages
1129-1141
Abstract
This study demonstrates that unconditional blocking of bills opposed by a majority of the majority party--as implied by the party cartel model and advocated by former Speaker Dennis Hastert--can produce conditions in which the majority party loses popular support and loses elections. The theoretical analysis and empirical results imply that the use of negative agenda power to block bills is circumscribed by this risk of electoral defeat. As a result, the opportunity for effective negative agenda control is conditional on majority party issue advantage, party polarization, and the distribution of status quo locations. In particular, majority party roll rates should sometimes be nonzero, blocking increases the odds of majority party defeat in House of Representatives elections, and policy change is most likely on issues with status quo that the model suggests are the riskiest to block.
Original Publication Citation
Richman, J. (2015). The electoral costs of party agenda setting: Why the Hastert Rule leads to defeat. Journal of Politics, 77(4), 1129-1141. doi: 10.1086/682415
Repository Citation
Richman, Jesse, "The Electoral Costs of Party Agenda Setting: Why the Hastert Rule Leads to Defeat" (2015). Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications. 5.
https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/politicalscience_geography_pubs/5
Comments
Replication Data available through Harvard Dataverse: http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/YBMKUX