ORCID
0000-0002-7419-1159 (Sullivan), 0000-0003-3563-2019 (Wallace)
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2025
DOI
10.1029/2025GL116642
Publication Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
52
Issue
18
Pages
e2025GL116642
Abstract
Proxy-based reconstructions of long-term Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) variability reveal low-frequency oscillations in regional TC landfalls over the Common Era. However, the limited spatial coverage and increased uncertainty of the proxy records complicates assessments of this feature. Here we present a new multi-ensemble set of synthetic TCs downscaled from the Last Millennium Reanalysis project, which is based on sea surface temperatures that more accurately reflect past conditions. Throughout ensemble members, there are coherent multi-centennial shifts in landfalls with persistent intervals of increased (decreased) occurrence along the eastern US concurrent with inverse activity in the southwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, associated with basin-scale redistributions of storm tracks. The emergent TC-dipole from modeled climate provides context and support for its presence within proxy-reconstructions. Furthermore, dipole recurrence across ensembles demonstrates that it arises from sea surface temperature-informed climate processes. However, timing differences between ensembles indicate that transient atmospheric variability influences dipole position.
Rights
© 2025. The Authors.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Data Availability
Article states: "Synthetic storms and MATLAB scripts are available on Zenodo (R. Sullivan et al., 2025). Paleodatasets used in this work can be found on Paleohurdat: https://paleohurdat.whoi.edu/."
Original Publication Citation
Sullivan, R. M., Wallace, E., Dee, S., Vecchi, G. A., Yang, W. C., & Emanuel, K. (2025). Multi-centennial spatial coherency among Atlantic tropical cyclones from simulated and reconstructed storm records. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(18), 1-11, Article e2025GL116642. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116642
Repository Citation
Sullivan, Richard M.; Wallace, Elizabeth; Dee, Sylvia; Vecchi, Gabiel A.; Yang, Wenchang; and Emanuel, Kerry, "Multi-Centennial Spatial Coherency Among Atlantic Tropical Cyclones From Simulated and Reconstructed Storm Records" (2025). OES Faculty Publications. 559.
https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/oeas_fac_pubs/559
Supporting Information S1